New York City weather and climate guide

7-day forecast for New York

Tonight in New York, NY brings slight chance showers and thunderstorms then partly cloudy. Across the 8-day outlook, highs average 83°F and lows average 71°F, ranging from 69°F to 87°F. 3 of the 8 days carry at least a 30% chance of precipitation, so keep rain gear handy.

Current conditions

Observed at New York City, Central Park (KNYC) at 7:51 PM EDT.

Why New York gets weather from every direction

The city sits where three air masses regularly collide. Cold, dry Canadian air arrives from the northwest. Warm, wet air streams up from the Gulf of Mexico. And the Atlantic sits immediately to the east, feeding moisture into anything that passes. Whichever wins on a given day sets the weather, and the handoff between them can be abrupt — a 20-degree temperature drop in a few hours when a front comes through is unremarkable here.

The ocean also moderates the extremes, but less than its proximity suggests. Prevailing winds in the mid-latitudes blow west to east, so most air arrives over land rather than over water. That is why New York gets far colder in winter and hotter in summer than coastal cities at similar latitude in Europe: London sits farther north than New York and rarely sees either 95 °F or 10 °F.

When the wind does swing onshore, the difference is immediate. A sea breeze on a hot July afternoon can hold Coney Island fifteen degrees below Newark. In winter, an easterly flow off relatively mild ocean water is often what turns a forecast snowstorm into cold rain along the coast while the western suburbs get buried.

Summer: the heat island and the humidity

July and August deliver highs in the mid-80s with dew points in the upper 60s, which pushes the heat index above 90 on most afternoons and above 100 during a heat wave. The humidity is what makes it punishing. Air coming off the Gulf of Mexico and the warm Atlantic keeps sweat from evaporating, and the city's architecture does the rest.

New York has one of the strongest urban heat islands in the country. Asphalt and masonry absorb solar energy all day and release it slowly after dark, so the difference between Manhattan and outlying suburbs shows up mainly at night — often 7 to 10 °F, occasionally more. That is why the city can stay above 80 °F at 3 a.m. in a heat wave, which is precisely the condition that makes heat dangerous: bodies need overnight cooling to recover, and apartments on upper floors without air conditioning never get it.

Summer thunderstorms tend to arrive as fast-moving lines in the late afternoon, dropping an inch of rain in twenty minutes and flooding subway entrances and underpasses. The city's combined sewer system was built for a gentler rainfall climate, which is why heavy storms now regularly overwhelm it.

Winter and the nor'easter

The signature winter storm of the Northeast is the nor'easter, named for the direction its strongest winds come from rather than where it comes from. These systems typically form off the Southeast coast, then track northeast along the Gulf Stream, deepening as they draw energy from the temperature contrast between cold land and warm ocean water.

What makes them dangerous is the combination. A strong nor'easter delivers heavy snow or rain, sustained winds of 40 mph or more, and coastal flooding at high tide, all at once and often for 24 to 36 hours. The January 2016 storm dropped 27.5 inches on Central Park, the largest single storm total in the city's record.

The critical variable is the storm track, and it is a knife edge. A low passing just southeast of the city pulls cold air down and produces heavy snow. The same low tracking fifty miles farther west pulls milder ocean air over the city and produces rain. Fifty miles is well inside forecast uncertainty three days out, which is why New York snowfall predictions come with such wide ranges and change so often.

Snowfall totals swing wildly from year to year as a result. The winter of 1995-96 brought nearly 76 inches; 1972-73 brought 2.8. The long-term average near 30 inches describes almost no individual winter.

Hurricanes and the coastal flood problem

New York is hit by tropical systems less often than Florida, but the geography makes it unusually vulnerable when one arrives. The right angle where New Jersey meets Long Island funnels water into New York Harbor with nowhere to disperse, so surge stacks up rather than spreading out.

Hurricane Sandy in October 2012 demonstrated it. Sandy was no longer technically a hurricane at landfall, having become post-tropical, and its winds were modest for the damage it caused. What mattered was its enormous size, its rare northwest approach angle driving water straight into the harbor, and a landfall timed with high tide during a full moon. Water rose nearly 14 feet at Battery Park, flooded seven subway tunnels and left parts of Lower Manhattan dark for days.

The lesson generalizes: for New York, storm size and approach angle matter more than category. Any tropical system tracking up the coast in late summer or fall deserves attention regardless of what the wind speed says.

Spring and fall, the short good seasons

Spring is the least reliable season. April can deliver 80 °F and blossoms one week and a 38 °F rain the next, because the ocean is still cold from winter and keeps pulling temperatures back down whenever the wind turns east. It is genuinely common for the city to skip from winter coats to air conditioning within a fortnight.

Fall is the reward. September and October bring the year's most stable weather: highs in the 60s and 70s, low humidity, and long stretches of clear high pressure. The tradeoff is that this is also peak Atlantic hurricane season, so the same weeks that produce the nicest days carry the highest tropical risk.

Weather hazards to know about

• Nor'easters and heavy snow

  December through March, peaking in late January and February

  Snowfall of a foot or more, wind above 40 mph and coastal flooding, often together and lasting more than a day. Watch the forecast track rather than the headline total, because a fifty-mile shift changes snow to rain.

• Heat waves

  June through early September

  Three or more consecutive days above 90 °F, with the urban heat island keeping nights warm enough to prevent recovery. The city opens cooling centers; upper-floor apartments without air conditioning are where the real risk sits.

• Flash flooding

  Mostly July through September

  Slow-moving thunderstorms and the remnants of tropical systems can drop two to three inches in an hour, faster than the sewer system drains. Basement apartments and subway entrances flood first.

• Tropical systems and coastal surge

  August through October

  Rare but consequential. The harbor's shape amplifies surge, and evacuation zones are based on inundation modeling rather than storm category — know which zone you are in before a storm is named.

What to wear and pack, by season

Spring (March to May)

Layers and a waterproof shell. Mornings near 45 °F and afternoons near 70 °F in the same day are normal, and a cold onshore wind can undo an entire warm spell.

Summer (June to August)

Lightest breathable clothing you own, plus something with sleeves for aggressively air-conditioned interiors. Comfortable shoes matter more here than anywhere, and afternoon thunderstorms mean a compact umbrella earns its space.

Fall (September to November)

The easiest season to pack for. A light jacket and a sweater cover September and October; November needs a real coat.

Winter (December to February)

An insulated waterproof coat, a hat, gloves and boots with grip. Sidewalk slush is the real adversary, not the air temperature — waterproof footwear matters more than extra insulation.