New Orleans weather and climate guide

7-day forecast for New Orleans

Tonight in New Orleans, LA brings mostly clear. Across the 8-day outlook, highs average 95°F and lows average 79°F, ranging from 78°F to 95°F. No day in the period shows a meaningful chance of precipitation.

Current conditions

Observed at New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport (KNEW) at 7:35 PM CDT.

The geography that defines everything

New Orleans sits in the Mississippi River delta, between the river and Lake Pontchartrain, on land built from river sediment. The natural levees along the river are the high ground — the French Quarter is a few feet above sea level, which is why it stayed dry in 2005. The land slopes away from the river toward the lake, and much of that low ground was swamp until it was drained in the early twentieth century.

Draining it created a permanent problem. Wet organic soil compacts and oxidizes when the water is removed, so the ground subsides. Parts of the city have sunk several feet over the past century and continue to subside at rates of up to an inch or more per year in places. Combined with regional sea level rise and the loss of coastal wetlands that once buffered storm surge, the city is getting relatively lower and more exposed over time.

Because the city is a bowl, rainwater cannot drain by gravity. It must be pumped out. The drainage system is designed to handle roughly one inch in the first hour and half an inch per hour after that. Any storm exceeding that rate floods streets regardless of the levees, and summer thunderstorms here routinely exceed it. This is why New Orleans street flooding is a normal summer occurrence and not necessarily a sign of system failure.

Hurricane risk and what changed after Katrina

Hurricane Katrina made landfall in late August 2005 as a Category 3 with a surge far larger than its wind speed implied, because it had been a Category 5 over the Gulf and surge responds to a storm's history and size, not just its landfall intensity. The flooding that destroyed most of the city was a levee and floodwall failure — more than fifty breaches — rather than water simply overtopping adequate defenses. Roughly 80% of the city flooded and over 1,800 people died across the region.

The federal response was the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System, a roughly $14.5 billion rebuild completed in the 2010s. It includes the Lake Borgne Surge Barrier, a nearly two-mile structure that is among the largest of its kind in the world, plus the West Closure Complex and extensively rebuilt floodwalls. Hurricane Ida in 2021 made landfall as a strong Category 4 with 150 mph winds and the system held — no levee failures, no catastrophic flooding of the city.

That is a genuine engineering success and it should be stated plainly. It should also be stated plainly that the system is designed for a specific level of protection, that subsidence and sea level rise erode that protection over time, and that Ida still left much of the metro area without power for over a week in September heat. The system prevents catastrophic flooding; it does not make a major hurricane survivable in place without preparation.

Summer: the heat index is the number that matters

August averages 92 °F with dew points near 77 °F. That combination produces a heat index of 105 to 110 on most summer afternoons. Overnight lows near 76 with humidity above 85% mean there is no meaningful nighttime recovery.

Physiologically, this is close to the practical limit of comfortable human habitability without air conditioning, and the city's architecture reflects the pre-air-conditioning era: high ceilings, tall shuttered windows, deep galleries and shotgun floor plans designed for cross-ventilation. Those features were adaptations to exactly this climate.

Afternoon thunderstorms are near-daily from June through September. They form from sea breeze convergence and lake breeze boundaries, build fast, drop one to three inches in an hour, and dissipate. The practical result is that a 60% chance of rain in July means a near certainty of a brief soaking somewhere in the metro area, not a day of rain.

The tropical season in detail

The Atlantic season runs June 1 to November 30, and the risk for southeast Louisiana is concentrated from mid-August through early October. Several factors make this stretch of coast particularly exposed.

Gulf water reaches the mid to upper 80s by late summer, which supplies ample energy for rapid intensification — a storm can gain two categories in 24 hours over the Loop Current. The continental shelf is broad and shallow, which amplifies surge. And Louisiana has lost roughly 2,000 square miles of coastal wetland since the 1930s; those marshes used to absorb surge energy before it reached populated areas.

The forecast products worth understanding are the National Hurricane Center cone, which shows the probable track of the center and not the extent of impacts, and the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map, which shows how deep water could get where you live. Surge, not wind, causes the majority of tropical cyclone deaths in the United States. Evacuation decisions here are driven by surge and by contraflow timing on the interstates, which takes many hours to execute.

Winter, tornadoes and the good months

Winter is short and mild — January averages 62 °F by day — with occasional Arctic intrusions that bring hard freezes and burst pipes in a city with limited cold weather infrastructure. Snow is a genuine event when it happens; the January 2025 Gulf Coast snowstorm produced the city's largest accumulation on record and shut everything down for days.

Louisiana has a real cool-season tornado threat, which distinguishes it from the Plains. From February through April, and again in November and December, Gulf moisture combined with strong wind shear produces tornadoes that are often nocturnal and rain-wrapped. Several have struck the metro area directly, including a strong tornado in Arabi and the Lower Ninth Ward in March 2022.

The best weather runs from late October through April, and it is genuinely excellent: warm days, low humidity, cool evenings. This is when the city holds nearly all of its outdoor festivals, and it is not a coincidence.

Weather hazards to know about

• Hurricanes and storm surge

  June through November, peaking mid-August to early October

  The most consequential hurricane risk of any major US city, given elevation below sea level, a broad shallow shelf and eroding wetlands. Surge, not wind, is the primary killer.

• Street and drainage flooding

  Year-round, near-daily risk June through September

  The pump system handles about one inch in the first hour. Summer thunderstorms routinely exceed that rate.

• Extreme humid heat

  June through September

  Heat index of 105 to 110 most afternoons, with overnight lows near 76 and humidity above 85% preventing recovery.

• Cool-season tornadoes

  February through April, and November to December

  Often at night and wrapped in rain. Louisiana's tornado season does not follow the Plains pattern.

• Hard freezes

  December through February, infrequent

  Pipes, plants and vehicles here are not prepared for sustained sub-freezing temperatures, so even brief events cause real damage.

What to wear and pack, by season

Spring (March to May)

Light clothing and rain gear. Excellent through April, humid by mid-May.

Summer (June to September)

The lightest breathable fabrics available, plus something for a daily downpour. Plan activity around the heat, not around the clock.

Fall (October to November)

The best season. Light layers, with a jacket for evenings by November.

Winter (December to February)

A medium jacket covers most days. Pack a warmer layer in case an Arctic front arrives, which happens once or twice a winter.